Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 89558.589142 94466.468762 99371.511886 104638.183341 110129.658489 115683.277076 121720.819261
2025-06-29 80893.078891 88360.190542 96030.697717 104488.701985 113542.847932 122933.939095 133400.270438
2025-07-06 74736.226684 83936.346589 93594.505677 104468.139793 116347.617011 128910.087779 143177.249114
2025-07-13 71135.560517 81753.870283 93102.158284 106097.758901 120531.678256 136034.811040 153908.240744
2025-07-20 68115.250339 79879.693523 92650.974760 107493.313008 124214.087794 142413.899138 163665.778186
2025-07-27 65213.717259 77895.427402 91858.951226 108303.775806 127066.772777 147732.504234 172137.829816
2025-08-03 62263.526703 75659.698630 90605.833648 108425.566747 128996.486579 151900.190150 179228.065254
2025-08-10 59798.882646 73835.538298 89689.172203 108806.465451 131113.445378 156196.937155 186406.774586
2025-08-17 57409.721164 71972.925593 88613.597184 108896.083185 132802.676645 159934.802643 192897.856671
2025-08-24 55868.984172 71029.459023 88538.383927 110088.956528 135724.282403 165063.112273 200988.193673
2025-08-31 53736.728730 69280.376200 87423.414789 109971.962709 137038.187564 168270.587083 206809.503615
2025-09-07 52610.617044 68694.820901 87650.139695 111414.950780 140173.773201 173604.456018 215139.627987
2025-09-14 51194.061513 67717.318926 87381.697674 112255.013530 142603.399988 178144.323628 222606.165525
2025-09-21 49490.653553 66323.251648 86553.566041 112370.384509 144128.341122 181594.359121 228784.327152
2025-09-28 47857.199280 64956.165919 85704.259724 112410.348785 145522.623153 184863.858000 234740.317216
2025-10-05 47153.963038 64734.129994 86248.915246 114153.996685 148995.438172 190650.360963 243764.198060
2025-10-12 46376.085474 64381.745175 86602.267170 115638.249314 152139.017028 196042.883960 252336.251171
2025-10-19 45357.243574 63679.303880 86480.867137 116499.007469 154491.087078 200464.714972 259737.563357
2025-10-26 44063.334023 62574.686122 85809.001124 116628.406047 155902.156472 203715.320029 265701.386466
2025-11-02 42957.290879 61680.882448 85375.093222 117032.609752 157638.798290 207360.148324 272159.448198
2025-11-09 41772.477596 60645.073777 84724.030587 117127.708084 158960.958941 210477.718127 277965.398902
2025-11-16 41138.912350 60326.139423 84988.521966 118393.340436 161771.032815 215463.755458 286128.778429
2025-11-23 39960.315551 59234.618300 84207.429604 118269.217909 162776.801561 218169.980474 291433.982282